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大陸新京網專訪 托佛勒(第四次浪潮/節錄)
新財富革命 50 兆美元財富待開發!



Wealth 3.0(BE0143)──托佛勒 財富革命
Revolutionary Wealth: How it will be created and how it will change our lives
革命正在發生 財富定義已然改寫

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Spatial Reach


l            Enciso and World Cup: Interview with the authors on March 27, 2003.

l            World Cup attendance: “World Cup Had Mixed Impact on Economy; Government Report,” Japan Economic Newswire, July 11, 2002. Also, “232,800 Foreigners Visit Korea for World Cup,” Asia Pulse, August 6, 2002.

l            Chuang Tzu: Waley, [274], p. 223.

l            International travel: “Surge Una Nueva Especialidad,” by Alejandro Lepetic, Corporate Traveler, June-July-August, 1997, p. 45.

l            1650 Population: World Almanac 1996 (Mahwah, N.J.: World Almanac Books, 1996) p. 553.

l            Americans’ mileage annual: "Annual Vehicle Distance Traveled in Miles and Related Data - 1998," U.S. Department of Transportation, from its website @ www.bts.gov/ntl/query.html?qt=average+miles+per+year&search.x=6&search.y=2.

l            Average commute: "The Cost of Traffic Congestion in Colorado," The Road Information Program, citing findings of the U.S. Department of Transportation, May, 2002, from the Program website @

lPeasant travel: Hale,  [116], p. 32.

l            Multinational product inputs: “Scouring the Planet for Braniacs,” by Pete Engardio, Business Week, October 11, 2004, p. 100.

l            Shintaro Ishihara: “Tokyo Story: Shintaro Ishihara’s Flamboyant Nationalism Appeals to Many Japanese Voters,” by John Nathan, New Yorker, April 9, 2001, p. 108. Also, Holstein, William J. The Japanese Power Game (New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1990) p. 165.

l            Cross-border money and dollarization: Cohen, Benjamin J. The Geography of Money (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998) pp. 1, 4, 94.

l            Panama and Ecuador. “Noboa: Dollar Has Been Good Thing for Ecuador,” by Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald, October 13, 2002, Section HW, p. 8.

l            East Timor, Russia, former republics, Romania, Turkey, Vietnam: “Unstable Exchange Rate System Hurting Emerging Markets,” Asia Pulse, January 8, 2003.

l            Argentina and others: U.S. Senate, Joint Economic Committee Staff Report, January, 2000, from the government website @

l            Dollars held overseas: "The Location of U.S. Currency: How Much Is Abroad?" by Richard D. Porter and Ruth A. Judson, Federal Reserve Bulletin 82, October, 1996, pp. 883-903.

l            Introduction of the euro: The future of the dollar, in terms of both its value and its use outside the U.S., was, according to some analysts, placed in doubt by the replacement of twelve national currencies by the euro. Some leading financial economists forecast that the euro would replace the dollar as the world’s most important currency. See “EMU and the Euro: An American Perspective,” by Harvard Prof. Jeffrey A. Frankel, June 28, 2000, www.fondazione.lucchini.itipdf/frankellast.pdf. In 2o05, the growth of U.S. trade and fiscal deficits and the decline of the dollar led to widespread speculation that China, Japan and other nations might dump their dollar holdings and switch to the euro. This wa~ followed, instead, by the worst crisis in the E.U.’s history: the angry rejection of its proposed constitution by voters in France and the Netherlands, putting the future of the euro and the E.U., itself – in doubt.

l            Mark in Balkans: “German Currency Leaves Its Mark Across the Balkans,” by Lucian Kim, Christian Science Monitor, March 2, 2000, p. 8.

l            Franc in Africa: “Europe’s Funny Money,” by Martin Walker, United Press International, August 8, 2001.

l            Swiss franc in Liechtenstein: “Information About Liechtenstein and Links to Related Sites,” Liechtenstein Permanent Mission to the United Nations, from the U.N. website @ www.un.int/liechtenstein/info.htm

l            Rupee in Bhutan: “Crowning Glory,” by Daniel Baer, Sydney Morning Herald, September 28, 2002, Travel section, p. 7.

l            Krone in Greenland: “History and Adventure Kept on Ice in Greenland,” by Jane M. Olsen, Associated Press, August 18, 2003.

l            Foreign currency in eighteen countries: “Monetary Policy in Dollarized Economies,” by Tomas J.T. Balino, Adam Bennett and Eduardo Borensztein, International Monetary Fund, 1999, from its website @ www.imf.org/external/pubs/nft/op/171

l            Monetary spaces, seigniorage and markets: Cohen, [53], pp. 5, 92.



An Unready World


l            World Exhibition and Le Figaro: British Broadcasting Corporation: “Back to the Future: 1900,” British Broadcasting Corp., from its website @ www.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/specialreport/1999/12/99/backtothefuture/1900/stm

l            Foreign trade: Estevadeordal, Antoni; Frantz, Brian; Taylor, Alan M., “The Rise and Fall of World Trade, 1870-1939,” a working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, November, 2002, from the NBER website @ http://papers.nber.org/papers/

l            Colonies in Asia, Africa: Edelstein,  [81], pp. 35-37.

l            People in Open-economies: “A Tilt in the Right Direction,” by Simon Kuper, Financial Times, January 30, 1998, published in an FT Survey on International Youth, p.1.

l            Chile and Argentina: “Letter From Chile,” by Jimmy Langman, The Nation, December 16, 2002. Also, “Argentina Hopes to Attract Foreign Investment,” Agence France Presse, January 20, 2003. Also, “Nervous Investors Watch Brazil Election,” by James Cox, USA Today, October 4, 2002, p. 1B.

l            Microcredit: “Global Poverty: There’s No Panacea, But Here Are Strategies That Work,” by Pete Engardio, Business Week, Special Report. October 14, 2002, p. 108.

l            Earth’s surface area: “Moon ABCs Fact Sheet,” a chart accompany a web section on the Lunar Prospector project, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, from its website @ http://lunar.arc.nasa.gov/education/activities/active9

l            Equity markets: “Single Market for Equities: Regulations Must be Reformed to Encourage a Truly Pan-European Stock Market,” by Stanislas Yassukovich, Financial Times, January 26, 1998, p. 16.

l            Costs of Evian, Ketchup: “Hurdles Ahead,” a chart accompanying the article “Europe Sees Progress Falter in Face of Red Tape and Protectionism,” Financial Times, Tuesday, January 14, 2003, p. 3.

l            Access to capital: “The International Financial System: Exploring Concepts,” by Zanny Minton Beddoes, Foreign Policy, Fall 1999, p. 16.

l            Multinationals and subsidiaries: Union of International Associations, Encyclopedia of World Problems and Human Potential, Item D3003, (Munich: K.G. Saur, 1995), 4th Edition, Volume 1.

l            Foreign currency deposits: “Experts Question Roving Flow of Global Capital,” by Nicholas D. Kristof, New York Times, September 20, 1998, Section 1, p. 18.

l            FDI and cross-border debt: “World Total Direct Foreign Investment,” a report issued by the Milken Institute in conjunction with its 2002 Global Conference held April 22-24, 2002, in Los Angeles, p. II-32.

l            World trade: "Global Financial Profile," United Nations Panel on Refinancing for Development, June, 2001, from its website @ www.un.org/reports/financing/profile/htm

l            Kearney report, economic integration: “Measuring Globalization: Who?s Up; Who?s Down,” Foreign Policy, January/February, 2003, pp. 60-72.

l            Globalized vices: "Globalization," CSPAN transcript of Babbit’s remarks, March 1, 2001.

l            Drug trafficking, illegal economy: “The Five Wars of Globalization,” by Moises Naim, citing the 1999 “Human Development Report” by the United Nations, Foreign Policy, January/February, 2003, p. 30.

l            Sex-slave smugglers, Bucharest: MSNBC. “A Smuggler’s Paradise,” by David Binder, quoting the Albanian Interior Ministry, MSNBC, from its website @ www.msnbc.com/news/667792.asp?cp1=1

l            UNICEF report: “U.N. Children’s Fund Says Millions of Children Bought and Sold as Sex Slaves,” by Edith M. Lederer, Associated Press, December 12, 2001.

l            Yellow dust: “Dust Plagues Korea for Second Day,” by Byun Tae-kyung, Korea Herald, April 10, 2002.

l            Indonesian fires: “2002: A Bleak Year for the Environment,” by Agus P. Sari, Jakarta Post, December 28, 2002.

l            Cyanide spill: “Little Cyanide Peril is Seen for Danube; Tributary Badly Polluted, but Scientists Minimize Danger to Humans,” by Peter S. Green, International Herald Tribune, February 15, 2000, p. 1.

l            Joining the E.U: “Benefits and Costs of EU Enlargement for Present Members, First-round Candidates and Other Associated Countries,” by Andras Inotai, a paper prepared for the Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics-Europe, Paris, June 21-23, 1999, from the World Bank website @ www.worldbank.org/research/abcde/eu/inotai.pdf

l            Print articles on globalization: “Is It Globaloney?” by Karen Lowry Miller, Newsweek, December 16, 2002, p. 43.

l            Chinese out of poverty: "Enter the Dragon," The Economist, March 10, 2001, Special Section.



Thrust Reversers


l            Clinton: “Clinton Hails Globalization’s Gains,” by Alvin Powell, Harvard University Gazette, November 19, 2001, from the college's website @ www.news.harvard.edu/gazette/2001/11.29/09-clinton.html

l            Washington Consensus: “Doubts Inside the Barricades – The IMF,” The Economist, September 28, 2002, Special Report.

l            Security forces: “Stormy History of Anti-Globalization Protests,” Agence France Presse, July 23, 2001.

l            Protesters meet leaders: “From the Streets to the Inner Sanctum,” by Evelyn Iritani, Los Angeles Times, February 20, 2005, Part C, p. 1.

l            AIDS protests: “AIDS Activists Resume a Get-tough Campaign,” by Fred Tasker, Miami Herald, July 13, 2002, p. A1.

l            Child labor. “As Attacks Grow Against Globalization, Protesters Resist Labels that Define Them,” by Alessandra Rizzo, Associated Press, July 17, 2001.

l            Tobacco: “Challenging Corporate Abuse, Building Grassroots Power,” Infact, from its website @ www.infact.org/homepg~2.html

l            Prisoner rights: California Prison Focus and other groups, www.prisons.org

l            Argentina collapse: “Argentina’s Crisis: It’s Not Just Money,” by Larry Rohter, New York Times, January 13, 2002, Section Four, page 4. Also, “Uruguay Plans to Float Its Currency on World Markets,” by Thomas Cattan, Financial Times, June 21, 2002, p. 8.

l            Asian crash and global meltdown: “Point – Possibly,” by Cesar Bacani, Asiaweek, October 9, 1998, p. 58. Also, “Asia Rebounds Against Odds From Crisis,” by Stephen Seawright, South China Morning Post, January 1, 2000, p. 5.

l            Titanic: “Cheap Rivets Blamed for Sinking of Titanic,” by Peter Conradi, Sunday Times of London, February 1, 1998.

l            Circuit breakers: “SEC Approves Stock Exchange Circuit Breakers,” Investment Company Institute, April 16, 1998, from its website @ www.ici.org/issues/mrkt/arc-nasd/98_circuit_approve.html Also, “SEC Revises Rules to Halt Market Drop,” Bloomberg News, in an article in the Dallas Morning News, April 11, 1998, p. 1F.

l            Trading collars: “NYSE Sets New Levels for ‘Circuit Breakers’,” by David Wells, Bloomberg News, in an article published in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, March 31, 2003, p 2D.

l            Measures in India: “New Circuit Breaker System on SES From Monday,” Business Line, a publication of the Hindu of India group, March 29, 2002.

l            Circuit breakers in Taiwan: “Taiwan’s Investors React Cautiously to New Stock Trading System,” Taiwan Economic News, July 2, 2002.

l            Export Overload: “A Big Threat to Asia’s Export-Driven Economies,” by David Barboza, New York Times, March 21, 2003, Section W, p. 1.

l            China tries to reduce exports: "Beijing Seeks Ways to Boost Domestic Demand," by Peggy Sito, South China Morning Post, October 23, 2001, p. 4.

l            U.S. and world demand: “U.S. Economic Slowdown is Easing Its Way Around Globe,” by Evelyn Iritani and Thomas S. Mulligan, Los Angeles Times, January 11, 2001, Part One, p. 1.

l            Zambian copper: “Zambia: Transforming a Copper-dependent Economy,” by Allan Peters, Inter Press Service, October 21, 2002.

l            Nigeria’s oil: “Civilian Rule Brings Oil Money – But Little Progress – to a Corner of Nigeria’s Delta,” by Glenn McKenzie, Associated Press, August 11, 2002.

l            Saudi revenues: “A Test for the House of Saud,” by Stanley Reed, Business Week, November 26, 2001, p. 42.

l            Arab  oil: "Gulf Leaders to Review IMF Call for Taxes as Oil Income Dwindles,” Agence France Presse, December 30, 2001.

l            Angolan oil: “2002-2003/Economy: Prospects Mixed for Southern Africa,” by Anthony Stoppard, Inter Press Service, December 30, 2002.

l            Venezuelan oil: “Venezuelan Oil Output Climbs as Strike Against Chavez Shows Signs of Waning,” by Fabiola Sanchez, Associated Press, January 28, 2003.

l            Russia's revenues: “Putting OPEC Over a Barrel: Russia’s Oil Plan Could Push Western Pump Prices Down,” by Sharon LaFraniere, Washington Post, March 16, 2002, p. E1.

l            Mercosur and East Asian blocs: “Toward and East Asian Economic Community,” by Ari A. Perdana, Jakarta Post, February 18, 2003.



The Space Drive


l            ATM phones: “The ABCs of GPS,” by Glen Gibbons, IPI Global Journalist, Fourth Quarter, 2002, p. 3.

l            Dialysis: “A New Commitment to Space,” by Bill Nelson, Washington Post, February 2, 2003, p. B7.

l            Pacemakers: “NASA Plans to Show You How Space Program Helps You Live,” by Will Hoover, Honolulu Advertiser, April 4, 2001, p. 1F.

l            GPS development costs: “Location, Location, Location,” Red Herring, October 17, 2005, p. 30.


l            $100 billion industry, revenue growth: “2001-2002 Satellite Industry Indicators Survey,” conducted for the Satellite Industry Association by the Futron Corp., from  the SIA website @ www.sia.org/satelliteinfo.htm

l            Space-industry stocks: “Market Focus,” by Anthony L. Velocci Jr., Aviation Week & Space Technology, June 10, 2002, p. 8. Also, “Space Shuttle Loss Hurts Lockheed, Other NASA Stocks,” by Robert Little, Baltimore Sun, February 4, 2003, p. 1D.

l            Ukraine and Brazil: “Partnership With Ukraine to Use Alcantara Rocket Base,” Gazeta Mercantil, September 20, 2002.

l            Alcantara launch site: “Columbia Disaster Could Push Brazil to Rethink its Space Program,” by Bernd Radowitz, Associated Press, February 2, 2003.

l            Equity firms: “Private Equity Firms Make a Bet on Satellite Companies,” by Ken Belson, New York Times, April 18, 2005, Section C, p. 1.

l            MAP: “Mapping Alliance Program Provides Earth Imagery and Information Products to Markets Worldwide,” a Space Imaging news release dated November 19, 1996, from its website @ www.spaceimaging.com/newsroom/1996_mapping_alliance.htm

l            Weather futures: “More Companies Try to Bet on Forecasting Weather,” by Del Jones, USA Today, March 3, 2003, p. 1B.

l            Weather variations: “LIFFE to Launch Weather Futures Contracts,” an exchange news release, dated November 23, 2001, and posted on the Weather Risk website @ www.wrm.de/cgi-bin/wrm.pl?read=83

l            Weather risk: “Atmospheric Research: Understanding Atmospheric Events to Save Lives and Property Worldwide,” U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, January, 2001, from its website @ www.oar.noaa.gov/organization/backgrounders/atmosphere.html

l            U.S. economy: “Economy – United States, 2001 Est.”, World Factbook 2002, from the website @ www.bondtalk.com/factbook2002/geos/us.html

l            Dialysis patients: “A Better Option for Dialysis Patients,” by Linda Marsa, Los Angeles Times, February 3, 2003, Part 6, p. 1. Also, “Spinoffs from the Space Program,” National Aeronautics and Space Administration, March, 2000, from its  website @ www.hq.nasa.gov/office/pao/facts/HTML/FS-012-HQ.html

l            StelSys: “StelSys Set to Score a First in Space,” by Julie Bell, Baltimore Sun, May 30, 2002, p. 1C.

l            NASA health benefits: (Brain tumors) “Space Technology Helps Advance Cancer Treatment,” by Susan James, Florida Today, May 22, 2002, News, p. 1. (Blindness) British Broadcasting Corp. “NASA Laser Could Reverse Blindness,” British Broadcasting Corp., July 10, 2002, from its website @ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/2119537.stm (Osteoporosis and heart pump) “Shuttles Are Known Best for Exploration, But Researchers Say They Do Plenty of Good on Earth,” by Jeff Donn, Associated Press, February 6, 2003.

l            Heart disease costs: “Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics – 2003 Update,” American Heart Association, from its website @ www.americanheart.org/presenter.jhtml?identifier=3000090

l            Bioreactor: “Zero-gravity Experiments Continue at Station,” by Eric Schmidt, Denver Post, February 6, 2003, p. B2.

l            Engineered hearts: “Growing Demand for Spare Hi-Tech Hearts,” by Dawn Stover, Melbourne Sunday Herald Sun, November 19, 2000, p. L1. Also, “Patches for a Broken Heart,” National Aeronautics and Space Administration, February 14, 2002, from its website @ http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/14feb_heart.htm

l            Diabetes costs: “Health, Financial Costs Related to Diabetes Soar,” by Patrick O’Neill, citing results of an American Diabetes Association study of 2002 costs, Portland Oregonian, February 28, 2003, p. D1.

l            SPOT 4: “Satellite Instruments,” European Ozone Research Coordinating Unit at Cambridge University, from its website @ www.ozone-sec.ch.cam.ac.uk/VINTERSOL/Planning%20Document/Satelliteinst.html

l            Forest fires: “POAM III Observes Forest Fire Emissions in the Stratosphere,” 2001 NRL Review, a publication of the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, with reference to J. Hornstein, et al., 2001, p. 82.

l            NASA-Brazil project: “Ecological, Global Change Studies in the Amazon Rainforest," National Aeronautics and Space Administration, June, 2000, from its website @ http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov:81/Newsroom/Campaigns/LBAFacility.html

l            Polar ice: “Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat),” National Aeronautics and Space Administration, from its website @ http://icesat.gsfc.nasa.gov/

l            Satellite projects: (Water utilization) “Mojave Desert’s Surface Drop Linked to Century of Groundwater Use,” Associated Press, February 24, 2003. (Fisheries) “Ocean Scientists Study Mysterious Zones Near Pacific Shore,” by David Perlman, San Francisco Chronicle, February 16, 2003, P. A6. (Estuaries) “Satellites Cull Secrets from Lake Sediments,” New Orleans Times-Picayune, November 28, 2002, p. 18. (El Nino) “Weak El Nino Means Less Snow in West,” by Lee Bowman, Scripps Howard News Service, March 6, 2003.

l            Space-shuttle images: “Shuttle’s Cameras Offer New Views of the World,” by Warren E. Leary, New York Times, January 29, 2002, Section F, p. 5. Also, “Ancient City of Angkor Wat Yields New Secrets,” by Alexandra Witze, Dallas Morning News, June 8, 1998.

l            NAVSTAR: “Fact Sheet – NAVSTAR Global Positioning System,” U.S. Air Force, May 2002, from its website @

l            Europe’s GPS: “Galileo Cleared to Take On GPS,” from Bloomberg News, published in the Montreal Gazette, June 28, 2005, p. B7.

l            Shipping containers: “U.S. Customs Inspectors Deployed to Seaports of Rotterdam in Container Security Initiative,” U.S. Mission to the European Union, August 26, 2002, from its website @ www.useu.be/Categories/Justice%20and%20Home%20Affairs/Aug2602CustomsRotterdamContainerSecurity.html

l            Cargo inspections: “Devices to Secure Ship Containers; New Locks Allow Tracking and Can Even Call Security,” by Eli Sanders, Boston Globe, February 6, 2003, p. A3.

l            Tracking systems: “Move Over Bar Codes: Here Come the RFIDs,” by Teresa F. Lindeman, Pittsburgh, PA, Post-Gazette, February 27, 2005, p. A1.

l            Airport capacity: “FAA’s Garvey Sees Grim Future for Air Travel,” by Jon Hilkevitch, Chicago Tribune, April 30, 2001, Metro, p. 1.

l            00    GPS increases capacity: “How To Fix the Air-Traffic Mess,” by Cait Murphy with Alynda Wheat, Fortune, June 25, 2001, p. 116.

l            Lower GPS costs: “Technology That Watches Over Us: Satellite-Based Air Traffic Control,” by Geoff Nairn, Financial Times, October 9, 2002, FT Report, Business of Space, p. 3.

l            Global Differential GPS: “NASA Navigation Work Yields Science, Civil, Commerce Benefits,” Jet Propulsion Laboratory, October 14, 2002, from the NASA website @ www.jpl.nasa.gov/releases/2002/release_2002_191.cfm

l            Midwest Research study: “Reach for the Stars,” by Rahul Jacob, Fortune, September 25, 1989, p. 6.

l            Chase study: “Space Program Pays Big Tax Refund,” by former astronaut Jim Lovell, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, April 19, 1999. Also, “Space: Investing in the Future,” by Robert Sherman Wolff, Christian Science Monitor, October 28, 1981, p. 23.

l Algeria, Nigeria, Pakistan, small satellites: “Military and Industry Strive to Profit From Space,” by Fiona Harvey, Financial Times, December 27, 2002, p. 8.

lNations with space programs: “3rd World Sets Sights on Space,” by Peter Pae, Los Angeles Times, October 14, 2003, Part 1, p. 1.

lCompanies competing: “Commercial Space Travel Has Become a Reality With SpaceShipOne,” Omaha NE World-Herald, October 8, 2004, p. B6.

lAnsari X Prize: “SpaceShipOne Wins $10 Million Ansari X Prize in Historic 2nd Trip to Space,” by Leonard Davis, from the Space.com. website @ www.space.com/missionlaunches/xprize2_success_041004.html

l            Mars landing and Internet: Statement to the authors on May 26, 2004.



The Edge of Knowledge


l            Binh: “Vietnam’s Women of War,” by David Lamb, Los Angeles Times, January 10, 2003, Part 1, p. 1.

l            Raseikina: “GM Stakes Out Russian Frontier,” by Daniel Howes, Edmonton Sun, June 29, 2001, p. DR14.

l            Knowledge components: It is sometimes suggested that “wisdom” is a fourth, higher category.  But because there is almost zero agreement as to what wisdom might be, we will treat it here  as a subset of knowledge -- a decision some will no doubt find “unwise”.

l            Start of Yahoo!: “Building a Better Engine,” by Dawn C. Chmielewski, Orange County Register, May 9, 2000, p. G8.

l            Smith and FedEx: “Capitalists of the World, Innovate!” by Polly LaBarre, Fast Company, February, 1999, p. 76. Also, “The Essence of Entrepreneurial Success,” by Richard L. Osborne, Management Decision, 1995, Vol. 33, No. 7, pp. 4-9.

lToshiba: “World’s Smallest Hard Drive Less Than An Inch Long,” Chicago Sun-Times, March 17, 2004, p. 6.

l            Nanoscale storage: “Nano Memories Roll Past Flash Densities,” by Nicolas Mokhoff, Electronic Engineering Times, July 1, 2002, p. 24.

l            Lockheed Martin and Boeing: “Lockheed Sues Boeing in an Escalating Feud,” by Peter Pae, Los Angeles Times, June 11, 2003, Part 3, p. 1.

l            Value of physical vs. informational goods: Boisot, Max H., Knowledge Assets, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998) p. 83.



Tomorrow's "Oil"


l            Oil industry. “Energy Story, Chapter Eight: Fossil Fuels – Coal, Oil and Natural Gas," California Energy Commission, April 22, 2002, from its website @ www.energyquest.ca.gov/story/chapter08.html

l            Manufacturing, information, professional workers: “The American Work Force,” chart accompanying article by Peter Francese, American Demographics, February, 2002.

l            Computers in trucks: “Keeping Trucks on Track,” by Thomas W. Gerdel, Cleveland Plain Dealer, October 20, 2002. p. G1.

l            Early societies: Ochoa, George and Corey, Melinda, The Timeline Book of Science, (New York: Ballantine Books, 1995) p. 1. Also, “New Find Shows Early Toolmakers Smarter Than Previously Thought,” by Peter Svensson, Associated Press, citing a study published that week in Nature, May 6, 1999.

l            First pictographs: “Paintings in Italian Cave May Be Oldest Yet,” by Michael Balter, Science, October 20, 2000, p. 419.

l            Annual “knowledge” storage: “How Much Information? 2003,” Senior Researchers Peter Lyman and Hal R. Varian, University of California –Berkeley School of Information Management and Systems, October 27, 2003, from the website @ www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info-2003/

l            ASK: The term Aggregate Knowledge Supply refers only to human data, information and knowledge, as do references here and elsewhere to the concept of a “global brain.” But humans are not the only species dependent on knowledge. Animals, too, store, process and communicate their own knowledge about the world we and they live in. Some day, we can speculate, the collective knowledge of the animal kingdom may be integrated with that of humans and yield insights no human cultures alone could generate, vastly, therefore, expanding ASK.

l            Information and knowledge, memorization: Lesk, Michael. “How Much Information Is There In The World?", a 1997 technical paper, www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html

l            Total memory: Lesk, in "How Much Information Is There In The World?", extrapolating on research by T.K. Landauer published as “How Much Do People Remember? Some Estimates of the Quantity of Learned Information in Long-Term Memory” in Cognitive Science, Oct-Dec, 1986, pp. 477-493.

l            Woolfson quote: Woolfson, [290], p. 80.



The Obsoledge Trap


l            Aristotle on eels: Cerf, [43], citing Aristotle’s Spurious and Dubious Works, p. 303.

l            Indian Ocean: “Monsoons, Mud and Gold,” Saudi Aramco World, July-August 2005, p. 10

l            Porphyry: Garnsey, Peter, [100], p. 88.

l            Saint Isadore: Cerf, [43], citing White, p. 303.

l            Da Vinci: The Notebooks of Leonardo Da Vinci, edited by Edward MacCurdy, (Old Saybrook, Conn: Konecky & Konecky, 2003) p. 1075.

l            Toxic tomatoes, eater: “Let Them Eat Caju,” New Scientist, September 2, 2000, p. 3.

l            Jupiter in 1892, Barnard: The World Almanac: The Complete 1968 Original and Selections from 25, 50 and 100 Years Ago (New York: Pharos Books, 1992) p. 213.

l            Jupiter in 2003: “Studying Moons Helps Fill Out Picture of Solar System,” by Alexandra Witze, Dallas Morning News, May 19, 2003, p. E1.

l            Planet count: “Planets? 12? What’s a Planet, Anyway?” by Dennis Overbye, New York Times, October 4, 2005, p. F1.

l            Air  purity: “Impure Air Not Unhealthful If Stirred and Cooled,” a New York Times, September 22, 1912, p. 38, quoting L. Erskine Hill.

lCERN meeting: “Minutes of the 57th Meeting Held on 11 September 2002,” Advisory Committee of CERN Users, from the CERN website @ http://ep-div.web.cern.ch/ep-div/ACCU/Minutes/Previousminutes/Minutes57.pdf

l            Harrington: “Harrington Like a Machine,” by Art Spander, London Daily Telegraph, June 13, 2003, p. 2.

l            Horseless carriages: “First Cross-Country Drive Propelled Auto Age,” by Mike Toner, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, May 19, 2003, p. 1A.



The Quesnay Factor


lBush and CEA, press spokesman: “White House Forecasts Often Miss the Mark,” by Dana Milbank, Washington Post, February 24, 2004, p. A1.

l            Long-Term Capital Managment: "From Jones to LTCM: A Short (-Selling) History," by Sharon Reier, International Herald Tribune, December 2, 2000, p. 16. Also, "When Theory Met Reality: Teachings of Two Nobelists Also Proved Their Undoing," by Gretchen Morgenson and Michael M. Weinstein, New York Times, November 14, 1998, Section A, p. 1.

l            Russian economy: "By Putting Too Much Faith in One Team of Reformers, America Only Added to Russia's Economic Mess," by Andrew Nagorski, Newsweek, December 7, 1998, p. 41.

l            IMF and Asian crisis: "The Asian Financial Crisis: Hindsight, Insight, Foresight," by Wing Thye Woo, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, published by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, August 1, 2000, No. 2, Vol. 17, p. 113. Also, " ‘Solution’ Leaves Legacy of Bitterness: The IMF in Indonesia," by Alan Beattie and Tom McCawley, Financial Times, August 9, 2002, p. 5.

l            Indonesian violence: "Retailers Still Remember May Tragedy Five Years Later," by Arya Abhiseka, Jakarta Post, May 13, 2003.

l             Hall of shame: "Dismal Prophets," Financial Times, December 31, 2001, p. 12.

l            Consensus forecasts: "Economic Forecasts Shift in the Wind," by Guy Boulton, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, June 11, 2001, p. D1.

l            Wall Street Journal report: "Economic Forecasts Usually Wrong," by Bruce Bartlett, National Center for Policy Analysis, citing an article published January 2, 2001 in the Wall Street Journal, from the NCPA website @ www.ncpa.org/iss/eco/2002/pd010202a.html

l            IMF on foreign economists: Prakash Loungani of the IMF’s External Relations Department, in comments at the January 5-7, 2001, annual conference of the American Economic Association, from the IMF website article "Conference Examines U.S. Economic Uncertainties, Exchange Rate Choices, and Globalization”  @ www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/2001/012201.pdf  Also, Bartlett, "Economic Forecasts Usually Wrong."

lIMF and Thailand: "The Disinformation Gap," by David J. Rothkopf, Foreign Policy, March 22, 1999, No. 114, p. 82.

l            Inadequate data: Employment data becomes harder to collect and interpret when a “job” is not a job because so many people are now self-employed, part-time employed or, for that matter, part-time employers themselves all at the same time.  Rust-belt statistics yield more and more obsoledge.  But once a certain set of data has been collected for long periods of time, economists and statisticians dislike changing or redefining the set because it makes comparisons over time difficult.

lRobert Solow: “The Fruits of Fieldwork,” The Economist, August 17, 2002.

lJeffrey Eisenach: Interviews with the authors, June, 2005.

l            Psychologists, anthropologists:  The belated shift toward a more interdisciplinary economics introduces refreshing, previously unasked questions and insights.  But there remains another border    to be breached.  Most mainstream or Western economists have yet to reach out for, and perhaps test, insights from Asian, Middle Eastern and other non-Western cultures and economics.

l            Quesnay’s life: “Francois Quesnay: His Life, His Work, His Legacy,” by Benoit Delzelle, 2002, from the website @ http://bdelzelle.free.fr/quesnay.pdf Also, Staley, Charles E., A History of Economic Thought: From Aristotle to Arrow (Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, 1989) pp. 32-37. Also, Loebl, Eugen, Humanomics (New York: Random House, 1976) pp. 16-19. Also, Clough, Shepard Bancroft and Cole, Charles Woolsey, Economic History of Europe. (Boston: D.C. Heath and Co., 1947) pp. 358, 517.

l            Quesnay on sterile class: Clough, [51], Economic History of Europe, p. 517.



Filtering Truth


l            Intelligence committee: “Experts: Unreliable Data, Belief in WMD Led to Mistakes in Iraq,” by Matt Kelley, Associated Press, October 7, 2004.

l            Iraqi defectors: “The Conflict in Iraq; Suspicion of Chalabi Deception Intensifies,” by Bob Drogin, Los Angeles Times, May 23, 2004, Part A, p. 1.

l            Warren Buffet: “Invest in Warren Buffet’s Market-Beating Stock,” by Fiona McGoran, Sunday Times of London, March 30, 2003, Business and Money, p. 17.

l            Ali al-Sistani: “A Formidable Muslim Bloc Emerges,” by William O. Beeman, Los Angeles Times, May 27, 2003. Part 2, p. 13.

l            Papal infallibility:  Hansen, Eric O., The Catholic Church in World Politics, (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1987) p. 34.

l            CBS: "CBS Must Regain Courage in Wake of Rather Report," by David Shaw, Los Angeles Times, October 10, 2004, Part 5, p. 18.

l            New York Times: “Mutiny at the Times,” by James Poniewozik, Time, June 16, 2003, p. 48.

l            Le Monde: “Le Monde At War,” by Jo Johnson, Financial Times, May 10, 2003, Weekend Magazine, p. 24.

l            Richard Gere: “A Tough Time to Talk of Peace,” by Barbara Crossette, New York Times, February 12, 2002, Section B, p. 1.

l            Barbra Streisand: “Hollywood Goes to War,” by Julian Coman, London Sunday Telegraph, October 6, 2002, p. 27.

l            Welch now retired : “Welch Asks GE to Cut His Package,” by Andrew Hill, Financial Times, September 17, 2002,  p. 1.

l            Presumptive authority: Kors, Alan, “The Birth of the Modern Mind: An Intellectual History of the 17th and 18th Century,” a taped lecture series from The Teaching Company, (Chantilly, VA, 1998).

l            Science inherently anti-fanatic:  Scientists win prizes for disconfirming earlier findings. Writes physicist Lawrence M. Kraus in the New York Times, April 22, 2003, p. D3: ”Proving  one’s colleagues (and oneself) wrong is one of the great pleasures of scientific progress.” 

l            Method of discovery: Needham, [187], p. 122.

l            Francis Bacon: Pyenson,  [218], pp. 3, 77-78.

lScientific pursuit: “… And Still We Evolve,” a liberal studies handbook prepared by Ian Johnston for Malaspina University-College in British Columbia, Canada, May, 2000, Section 1, p. 1, from the college's website @ http://malaspina.edu/~johnstoi/darwin/sect1.htm

l            Doctors in commercials: “Drug Firm Pulls TV Ad Amid Debate,” by Bruce Japsen, Chicago Tribune, April 19, 2005, p. C1.

l            Dole, Armstrong: “Celebrity Plugs for Antidepressants Raise Questions,” by Ed Silverman of the Newark, NJ, Star-Ledger, on the Newhouse News Service, August 19, 2004.

l            Gain concept: Loebl, [155], pp. 23-25.



Trashing the Lab


lNumber of scientists growing: “Scientists and Engineers: Crisis, What Crisis?” by Mario Cervantes, OECD Observer, January, 2004, from its website @ www.oecdobserver.org/news/printpage.php/aid/1160/Scientists_and_engineers.html

l            U.S. spending for R & D: “IR&D Expenditures,” National Science Foundation, Table 4-1 in Science and Engineering Indicators 2004, from its website @ www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind04/c4/c4s4/htm

lForeign scientists in U.S.: “Science and Engineering Indicators – 2002 Overview,” National Science Foundation, from its website @ www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/seind02/cO/cOs1.htm

lIBM R&D, patents, licensing income: “IBM is Patent King Again,” The Economist, February 19, 2005.

l            Horn: “Research Chief is Thinker AND Doer,” by Therese Poletti of Knight-Ridder Newspapers, published in the Seattle Times, April 4, 2005, p. C3.

l            IBM income: “Financial Information, 2004,” from IBM’s website @ www.ibm.com/investor/financials/index.phtml

l            Technical progress: Gary Bachula, in testimony before the Subcommittee on Technology of the U.S. House of Representatives. February 11, 1999, from the congressional website @ www.house.gov/science/bachula021199.htm

l            National Science Foundation Report: “Strong R&D Spending Buttresses U.S. Economic Growth, Report Shows,” National Science Foundation,  April 30, 2002, from its website @ www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/news/02/pro0228.htm

l            Razor blades: “Terror Tactics,” by Nell Boyce, New Scientist, November 6, 1999, p. 55.

l            Morrissey: “Morrissey Supports Animal Rights Violence,” by Jason Alardyce, Sunday Times (London), January 15, 2006, p. 7.


l            Other violence: “Violence in the Name of Mercy,” by Mark Lowey, Calgary Herald, March 21, 1992, p. B4.

lScientists and corporations: Rampton,  [220],  Cozy financial links between government scientists and pharmacutical and biomedical firms have drawn Congressional scrutiny and criticism. In 2004, Republican Sen. Arlen Spector told officials of the National Institutes of Health that “there are really major problems here.”

l            Cause to be cautious:  There are good reasons to be careful in the application of potentially powerful new scientific advances.  But a “precautionary principle” that demands 100 percent risk-free science and technology is not a formula for the preservation of nature but for the most unnatural and impossible stasis. As we noted in Future Shock in 1970: “The incipient worldwide movement for control of technology… must not be permitted to fall into the hands of irresponsible technophobes, nihilists and Rousseauian romantics… Reckless attempts to halt technology will produce results quite as destructive as reckless attempts to advance it.”

l             Franken-foods: “Europe Shows Little Taste for U.S. Biotech Crops,” by Greg Burns, Chicago Tribune, October 30, 2002, Business, p. 1.

l            Protectionism in Europe: “Agriculture Impasse ‘Threatens Doha’ “, by Frances Williams, Financial Times, February 28, 2003, p. 8.

l            Zimbabwe: “Starved for Food, Zimbabwe Rejects U.S. Biotech Corn,” by Rich Weiss, Washington Post, July 31, 2002, p. A12.

l            James Morris: “Zambia Turns Away GM Food Aid For Its Starving,” by

l            James Lamont, Financial Times, August 19, 2002, p. 4.

l            Monsanto: “Monsanto Struggles Even As It Dominates,” by David Barboza, New York Times, May 31, 2003, Section C, p. 1. Also, “Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming,” by Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman, Harvard Business Review, March, 2003, p. 72. Also, “Sowing Disaster?” by Mark Shapiro, The Nation, October 28, 2002, No. 14, Vol. 275, p. 11.

l            Seed fire: “Letter Claims Responsibility for Monsanto Fire, ANSA Says,” Associated Press, April 5, 2001. Also, “Arsonists Burn Monsanto Depot in Italy,” Associated Press, in an article in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, April 4, 2001, p. C2.

l            Prince Charles interview: “Respect for the Earth, A Royal View,” part of the Reith Lecture Series 2000, British Broadcasting Corp., from its website @ http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/events/reith_2000/lecture6.stm

l            Charles on scientific tyranny: “Prince Charles Urges ‘Materialistic’ West to Seek Guidance from Islam,” by Kate Watson-Smyth, London Guardian, December 14, 1996, p. 4.

l            Creationists: “Not Just in Kansas Anymore; Opposition to the Teaching of Evolution,” by Eugenie C. Scott, Science, May 5, 2000, No. 5467, Vol. 288, p. 813.

l            Unabomber: Chase, Alston, Harvard and the Unabomber (New York: W.W. Norton, 2003) pp. 18, 21, 84, 87-88. Letters were sent to the New York Times, Washington Post and Penthouse.

l            Richard Gosden: “Academics Fear Exodus in ‘Anti-Science’ Backlash,” by David Pilling and Sheila Jones, Financial Times, September 24, 1999, p. 11.

l            Astrology PhD: “ET in the Sorbonne,” by Eric Hoogcarspel and Jan Willem Nienhuys, Skepter, June, 2001, from the Skepsis website @ www.skepsis.nl/doctorteissier.html Also, “An Academic Dispute That Is Out of this World,” by Magnus Linklater, Times of London, August 16, 2001.

l            Political war on science: “A Vast Conspiracy,” by Adam Keiper reviewing The Republican War on Science, by Chris Mooney (New York: Basic Books, 2005), National Review, October 10, 2005, p. 48

lConfine new science: “Biotechnology: Mary Shelley or Galileo Galilei?” by Philip Stott in the ACU Bulletin, Issue 144, published by the Association of Commonwealth Universities in London. June, 2000, from the ACU website @ www.acu.ac.uk/yearbook/144-stott.html

l            Institutions lag science fraud: “Global Trend: More Science, More Fraud,” by Lawrence K. Altman and William J. Broad, New York Times, December 20, 2005, p. D1.

l            Drug research and poor: “Hale and Healthy,” The Economist, April 16, 2005.

Gender bias in research, feminists: Harding,

l            [120] and [121].

l            Animal testing: “The Fur and the Fury,” by Rose Palazzolo, ABC News, April 12, 2000, from its website @ http://abcnews.go.com/sections/living/DailyNews/cosmetictesting0000412.html

lNew weapons: “300 March on LANL,” (Los Alamos National Laboratory), by Ian Hoffman, Albuquerque Journal, August 10, 2000, p. 1.

l            New Age wholesalers, posters: “The New Age Wholesale Directory, 2003 Edition,” and “Your Own New Age Poster Store … For Only $40 Bucks!”, both from the New Age Reseller website @ www.newagereseller.com

l            New York cover: “Psychic New York: The City’s Supernatural Superstars,” New York, April 21. 2003.

l            New Age beliefs: Hanegraaff, [119], pp. 23-27, 125, 265, 271, 341, 517.

l            Origins of postmodernism: “Moral Relativity Is a Hot Topic? True. Absolutely,” by Edward Rothstein, New York Times, July 13, 2002, Section 2, p. 7.

lPostmodernism and business: (Knowledge management) “Post Modern Knowledge Management and Social Enterprise Blogging,” by Luigi Canali De Rossi, MasterMind Explorer Review, February 7, 2003, from the Robin Good website @ www.masternewmedia.com/issue25/post_modern_knowledge_management.htm (SMEs) “Advanced Business Communications in Europe,” CORDIS, the European Commission’s research and innovation information website @ www.cordis.lu/infowin/acts/ienm/products/ti/toc.htm (Brunel) Brunel University School of Business and Management from its website @ www.brunel.ac.uk/dept/sbm/postgraduate/index.shtml?2 (Simon Fraser) Simon Fraser University, from its website @ www.bus.sfu.ca/courses/bus303/ (Las Vegas) David M. Boje. “Background Ideas for Deconstructing Las Vegas,” by David M. Boje, August 29, 1999, from the New Mexico State University website @ http://cbae.nmsu.edu/~dboje/postmodvegas.html

l            Ecology and religion: “Environmental Colonialism,” by Robert H. Nelson, The Independent Review, Summer, 2003, Vol. VIII, No. 1, p. 65.

l            Anti-science groups: While individual anti-science movements may start from different premises, use their own specialized jargons and pursue different tactical agendas, they often swap ideas, stereotypes and mischaracterizations of both scientists and science. 

l            Baltimore on secrecy: “Baltimore Discusses Science, Community,” by Eun J. Lee, The Tech, a newspaper at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, February 22, 2002, Vol. 122, No. 6.

l            Baltimore on knowledge: “Scientists in the Age of Terror and Knowledge-Based Economies,” by David Baltimore, New Perspectives Quarterly, March 18, 2002, from its website @ www.digitalnpq.org/global_services/nobel%20laureates/03-18-03.html

l            Relinquishing research: "Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us," by Bill Joy, Wired, April, 2000, from its website @ www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joypr.html

l            Scientific disaster: Rees,  [222], pp. 1-4, 127-129.